Russian troops in their current state are hardly capable of a full-scale offensive in the Donetsk region. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Ukrainian sources and pro-war Russian bloggers.
The Russian command, according to ISW, is deploying the most elite units in the Bakhmut area in small groups, using the tactics of infiltrating the city. This could provide a significant advance for Russian troops if Ukrainian forces decide to retreat from Bakhmut. At the same time, the commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Alexander Khodakovsky, wonders why Russian troops are spending resources on small-scale achievements, rather than amassing combat forces to launch a full-fledged offensive.
The representative of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), Andriy Chernyak, noted that the Russians are preparing to intensify their attacks in eastern Ukraine in the next few weeks and are currently looking for weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense, but he doubted that Moscow now has enough forces to active actions. Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces, said the grueling Russian operations in Bakhmut are a “symbol” of Russia’s inability to conduct fast and powerful offensive operations.
The ISW notes that in the previous stages of the war, the personnel of the bloodless units were restored at the expense of the mobilized ones. At the same time, experts point out that the Russian military failed to prepare the mobilized fighters for effective offensive operations. To this, the researchers add the lack of adequate vehicles, ammunition and other equipment.
The Russian military is unlikely to be able to transfer the experience of Bakhmut to the wider theater of war: the tactics they use in Bakhmut are more suitable for dense urban environments. In addition, Moscow lacks elite formations for full-scale offensive operations, the report says.
source: moscowtimes