Updated poll puts PiS on 36.6% and Tusk’s alliance on 31% but latter is likely to be able to form coalition.
Poland’s ruling populists appear to be heading for electoral defeat, in what would be one of the most consequential European political turnarounds of recent years, if exit polls showing a victory for an opposition coalition led by Donald Tusk prove correct.
The exit polls suggested that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party received the most votes, but that Tusk’s Civic Coalition together with two other opposition parties should have a route to a parliamentary majority.
Tusk, who was Polish prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and then became European Council president for five years, declared victory almost immediately after polls closed on Sunday, claiming there was no route for PiS to claim a third term in office.
“It’s the end of the evil times, it’s the end of the PiS rule. We made it,” he said, speaking at a party event inside Warsaw’s ethnography museum to the sound of cheers from supporters. “We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free, beloved Poland this day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland.”
An updated exit poll released on Monday put PiS on 36.6% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition on 31%, with strong showings also for two groups that could form a coalition with Tusk: the centre-right Third Way (13.5%) and the leftwing Lewica (8.6%). The poll projects that the opposition coalition will win about 248 out of 460 seats.
Later on Monday, the electoral committee released final results from 50% of voting districts, which gave PiS 38.3% and Civil Coalition 27.8% of the vote share. However, with rural areas with strong support for PiS declaring earlier, the gap is expected to narrow as the day goes on.
The full results may only be available on Tuesday. The official results have been slow to come in amid a record turnout of more than 70%, the highest since the fall of communism in the country. There were long queues at polling stations across the country and some voters in the city of Wrocław stood in line until nearly 3am waiting to vote, six hours after the official close of polls.
If the exit polls are confirmed, the result is likely to transform Poland’s domestic political scene and restart relations with Brussels, which had frayed over PiS’s attacks on the independent judiciary and other rule of law issues.
It comes after months of vicious campaigning, in which Tusk highlighted the damage done to Poland over the past eight years while PiS claimed he was a foreign stooge who would destroy the country. PiS apparently failed to convince enough voters to support them despite control over public media and the introduction of a referendum on the same day as the election with a series of leading questions on migration and other issues, aimed at motivating its base to vote.
When the official results are in, all eyes will be on the PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda, who has the prerogative when it comes to offering the first attempt to form a coalition.
Borys Budka, the chair of Civic Coalition’s parliamentary faction, said on Sunday he believed Duda would turn to the opposition coalition first. “The next days will show what happens in Poland and I am quite sure that the president will have to appoint the candidate of the majority in the Sejm [lower house of parliament],” he said.
The Civic Coalition MP Cezary Tomczyk repeated the message on Monday. “We demand from the president that the democratic camp be able to choose a candidate for prime minister. The natural candidate for prime minister is Donald Tusk,” he told Poland’s TVN24.
Nevertheless, Duda has previously said he would turn first to the party who received the most parliamentary seats. If so, it could delay the opposition by up to two weeks while PiS attempts to build a government. PiS figures on Monday morning claimed they would enter talks with other parties aimed at building a workable coalition, but if the exit poll results are largely accurate they do not appear to have a path to government.
The PiS chair, Jarosław Kaczyński, 74, said on Sunday his party’s result was a big success, but said he did not know whether there was a path to government.
During its eight years in power, PiS has been accused of politicising many state bodies, including the chamber of the supreme court, which ratifies election results. Many opposition members are wary of possible attempts to undermine the vote in the coming days by PiS and Kaczyński, who has dominated Polish politics for the last decade.
Budka said he did not believe PiS was in any state to contest the vote using legal or other means. “I’m not sure Kaczyński is a person who can make a revolution now. He is not very strong. He looks very tired and even if they try any tricks it wouldn’t be something which changed the result,” he said.
Many progressive Poles celebrated the exit poll results late into the night on Sunday, with the probable end of PiS rule seen as positive step for the rights of women and LGBTQ+ people.
Barbara Nowacka, a Civic Coalition MP who has been fiercely critical of the PiS crackdown on abortion rights, said it was clear the opposition had won and that it was an important day for Polish women. “Young women won’t be afraid to get pregnant, young women won’t be afraid to go to the doctor,” she said.
Sourece: The Guardian